You heard it on No Te Duermas
In the usual economic and financial column of the radio program, Darío Banga analyzed the government’s inflation data.
Tomás Modini
@ModiniTomas
At the beginning of the column on No Te Duermas, Darío Banga spoke about economic statistics: “I believe that the economic agenda goes hand in hand with a political agenda. Because the numbers are closing for Javier Milei’s government in that situation, but this closing of values in the macroeconomy can have a problem in the social aspect.”
“We see that in the inflationary issue Milei is happy with the numbers and he has a reason, which is that the nominal values that INDEC publishes are values that obviously the government aimed to obtain and it is obtaining them, without a doubt,” he added.
At the same time, he pointed out that “we then have to analyze how these values impact each one” and that “services do so more than food products in families.”
The trade balance
Then, the specialist pointed out: “The trade balance was also released this week, which had a growth of 888 million dollars and for the first time imports grew in a long time.”
“We are talking about imports for 6,128 million and exports for 7,000 million, which led to an increase in the trade surplus,” he added.
He said about this that “if one analyzes wholesale inflation, which was also released, the values are at 1.2 percent” and that “wholesalers anticipate retail prices and if imported products are taken, there is a deflation because they are at 0.5. So these values are useful to the government because they have a low inflationary number.”
“This has already been experienced in some years, which the macro numbers can give you, but the internal conflict is another. In this case, there will soon be a problem with the yerba mate issue. The yerba mate producers are going to go out and hit hard until they have no stock on the shelves, according to what they say. But if the government makes yerba mate be imported from other countries, and it is doing the same with the competition of products, there will be low inflation because the competition between products does not lead to an increase in prices,” he assured.
The adverse effects of low inflation
On the other hand, Banga anticipated what will come: “Next year the government will have good inflation data if it continues like this, but that will generate unemployment because the factories that produced will stop producing, because it is convenient to import.”
“Something that was already experienced in the classic of the 90s. It is something political because for me that equation of numbers of low inflation data, with respect to people losing their jobs, suits a large group of voters,” he indicated.
He also hinted that “there is enormous unemployment but there is no inflation and salaries win a little over inflation month by month” but that “afterwards you will have a lot of people without work because companies will close due to low production, although the electorate, in my view, ends up serving them. And the reality is that this speech wins you in the discussion.”
“Milei’s government had two stages. From 1989 to 1991, which It was inflationary and high because Menem’s was very high as soon as it went up. With the arrival of Cavallo and the convertibility plan, the process of the Menem government’s economic model was consolidated in the second term. All of that ended up crashing with De La Rúa. And that is happening now,” he concluded.
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