You heard it in No Te Duermas
In the second part of the column, Darío Banga emphasized some complications that the government currently has in international politics and inflation.
Tomás Modini
@ModiniTomas
The international panorama
During the second part of the column on economics and finance in No Te Duermas, Darío Banga indicated: “The international panorama is also becoming complicated for the government because they thought Donald Trump had won and the reality is that the elections are not so easy. Even if Trump were to win, I don’t think everything would be so easy because they think they can have a “friendly loan” and in that sense have dollars to be able to solve the issue. And they did not give confidence that this issue can happen.”
“There is also another geopolitical issue and international context, which is that China can stock up on a lot of soybeans. The Chinese began to grow in terms of purchasing power and a lot of pork is being sold, which they fatten on soybeans. China stocked up and there won’t be much buying from them. Another thing is that the United States is selling a lot, so Argentina has a complicated issue in the primary sector,” he added.
Then, regarding the gold business with Switzerland, he mentioned that “with gold what they are doing is a mechanism in which they take the gold, leave it parked and that gives them an interest or credit” and that “Argentina later, when it has reserves, goes and brings them back.”
“It puts the dollars and brings them back, it is a kind of return. The problem is that if the reserves are negative and the country goes bankrupt, it is probable that the gold will stay there and never come back. It is not something normal because they can keep all the gold,” he explained.
He also said: “It is as if you had a credit for example or a fixed term that you put in the bank, where you leave the money and it returns an interest. But the bank can say that if you do not have more income, the money will be kept by them and that is what can happen in the country. It is a risk that is run in finance and Caputo is a guy who knows how to take risks and knows how to lose.”
The issue of low inflation
On the other hand, in response to the specific question from the table, he did not appear to be expecting an even lower inflation figure in the future: “I do not believe that the government can achieve a lower inflation. More than anything because there is a lot of increase in regulated costs as well, an increase in gas, an increase in tolls, the cost of logistics as well. These existing increases can have an impact. This 4 percent that there was with respect to the month of July, of seasonality is 5.1 that may not be there next month because July is a specifically seasonal month due to the winter holidays.”
“One of the activities that increased the most was hotels and restaurants, which reached almost 6.5 percent, followed by water, housing, electricity and gas, 6 points, which also includes rents. Health, 5.8, recreation and culture, obviously almost 6 points, all above total inflation. Those will surely be lower but we have to see how much the increase of the regulated and the components of the core affects them”, he detailed.
He also assured that “the floor will be at least 4 percent, I don’t see the way out of reaching 0 by the end of the year” and that “I was very surprised by the difference that there was for the first time between CABA and INDEC. In Capital they gave one point more and they have another measurement but the reality is that INDEC was closer to the private consultants”.
“It may happen in CABA that there was one point more due to the seasonal components, especially because the theater works are mostly on Corrientes Street and those places and it is probable that there will be a further increase but it has never been so separate”, he concluded.
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