Economic. The improvement in financial indicators is driving an increase in market confidence and in economic policies that seek fiscal stability.
Tomás Modini
@ModiniTomas
Argentine sovereign bonds, both Globales and Bonares, reached an average price of 71 dollars, the highest since their issuance, and this performance coincides with the decrease in country risk, which closed at 571 basis points on Monday, according to data from the American bank JP Morgan.
This behavior reflects a strong renewal of interest on the part of investors, which is mainly supported by factors such as the fiscal surplus and the orthodox policies implemented by the government of Javier Milei, key in his management.
Various analysts highlighted that the administration shows a clear intention to prioritize fiscal balance by increasing the confidence of international markets.
Reserves and liquidity as pillars of stability
The national Treasury used the fiscal surplus to strengthen its position in foreign currency, with deposits reaching 5.698 billion dollars. This liquidity is enough to cover the debt payments corresponding to the first quarter of the year, as established by the projections of private consulting firms. In addition, the international reserves of the Central Bank grew by 1.25 billion dollars last week, now standing at more than 32 million.
It is this accumulation of reserves, favored by financing operations such as a REPO for 1 billion of the North American currency, which reinforces the solvency of the country to face debt commitments in foreign currency.
Regarding taxes, the Ministry of Economy reported a year-on-year increase in collection of 205.6 percent, exceeding inflation by 80 points. This fiscal performance adds to a context of economic recovery that generates certain expectations in the government’s inner circle.
According to a report by the consulting firm Sudamericana Visión, which is led by former Economy Minister Martín Guzmán, Argentina has the capacity to meet the debt maturities scheduled for 2025, even without access to the international credit market.
Optimistic projections for 2025
The beginning of 2025 confirms a positive trend in Argentine asset prices, generated by investor confidence. Although challenges such as external financing and the current account deficit persist, the market expects current economic policies to maintain stability and consolidate the recovery that experts in the field assure.
In this scenario, structural challenges do not disappear since access to external financing and the need to maintain a sustained trade balance will continue to be determining factors for medium-term stability. However, recent improvements place Argentina in a good position to face these challenges.
The key for Milei and his economic team will be to capitalize on the current market optimism and consolidate the foundations of a more diversified economy. With prudent management of resources and the continuity of responsible economic policies, the country could not only sustain this trend that is viewed favorably, but also mark the beginning of a longer growth cycle over time.
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